The number of people with chronic liver disease in Scotland is projected to increase by 54 per cent by 2044, according to a report from Public Health Scotland (PHS) – equating to an additional 23,100 people.
More than 70 per cent of chronic liver disease cases are caused by alcohol, with the most recent alcohol-specific death figures for Scotland recording the highest number since 2008. The percentage of liver disease deaths where alcohol was the primary cause has almost doubled since the beginning of the 1980s, while the rate of hospital stays for chronic liver disease also rose by 12 per cent in the decade to 2022-23. Many liver cirrhosis patients are diagnosed in hospital emergency departments, as the disease often shows no symptoms until its final stages.
‘Over 70 per cent of this liver disease burden is due to alcohol and these figures underline the severity of the public health emergency from alcohol that Scotland is facing, with the latest figures showing alcohol is directly responsible for 1,277 deaths annually,’ said chair of SHAAP Dr Alastair MacGilchrist. The increase in liver disease was ‘not inevitable’, however. ‘There are many missed opportunities to intervene to reduce heavy alcohol intake before liver damage occurs,’ he continued. ‘We now have the tools to do this and early detection of liver disease in at-risk individuals such as heavy drinkers needs to become routine practice.’
The ‘shocking’ figures once again highlighted the fact that Scotland was in the grip of ‘an ongoing alcohol emergency’, added deputy chief executive of Alcohol Focus Scotland, Laura Mahon. ‘It doesn’t have to be this way. Each of these deaths is entirely preventable, and there are a range of well evidenced and cost-effective prevention measures available which could be adopted. These include increased use of non-invasive liver scans to enable those at high risk to be identified sooner and provided with care and support to address their liver problem and their alcohol use. Restrictions on alcohol marketing and introducing clear health warning labels on alcohol products should form part of a new comprehensive alcohol strategy.’
Meanwhile, the fall in smoking rates in England is showing signs of stalling in some areas, according to a Cancer Research UK-funded study by University College London (UCL). Smoking rates have fallen more quickly in the North – which traditionally had the highest smoking prevalence – narrowing the ‘significant gaps’ across the country, says Cancer Research UK. ‘The study suggests that smoking rates in the North of England are now as low as in the South,’ it states.
Scottish burden of disease: future prevalence and burden of chronic liver disease available here
Trends in smoking prevalence and socio-economic inequalities across regions in England: A population study, 2006 to 2024 published in Addiction available here